Talking Investment: ‘Housing land supply crisis is creating real momentum for change’

The housing land supply crisis is creating real momentum for change, according to Theo Till, managing director of housebuilder Wheeldon 1867 and member of the RICS UK & Ireland World Regional Board. Here, in his own words, Theo explains why it presents a ‘ground-breaking’ opportunity for the industry.

 The housing crisis in England is not a new story – and neither are its contributing factors.

It is fuelled by wide-scoping data including a rising population, changes in living circumstances and a general lack of affordability.

However, the scale of the challenge we now face to deliver the number of homes we should be building is creating a genuine moment of opportunity for the housebuilding sector.

In 2024 the Government set a target to deliver 1.5 million net additional dwellings in England throughout the Parliamentary period (through to 2029).

The official statistic for the period 2024 to 2025 was 208,600 net additional dwellings (a six per cent decrease on 2023 to 2024).

The 2025 to 2026 figures will be published in November – and forecasts are not looking optimistic.

The housing market is facing its own battles; rising build costs, additional legislative requirements resulting in planning delays and increasing costs, high interest rates and no government-backed programme to assist homebuyers – with many housebuilders lobbying for the return of Help to Buy.

National housing targets are translated into five-year housing land supply requirements at a local level.

Across much of England, local authorities struggle to demonstrate the mandated five-year supply. In some areas that supply has fallen to less than a year.

The impact is significant; local communities are not getting the homes they need; pressure increases on infrastructure and developers and landowners face uncertainty about development prospects.

The revised National Planning Policy Framework (December 2024) introduced the concept of ‘Grey Belt’, a category of lower-quality Green Belt land that has limited contribution to the five purposes the Green Belt was originally designed to serve.

For qualifying sites, Grey Belt planning policy provides a realistic and structured route to development.

This matters enormously in the East Midlands, where Green Belt designations have long constrained the supply of developable land adjoining sustainable settlements.

The ability to identify, assess and promote sites through this emerging policy framework is opening doors that were previously firmly closed.

In the 18 months since its introduction, housebuilders are already delivering much-needed new homes through this route.

At Wheeldon we are identifying sites where the Grey Belt credentials are strong, where Green Belt Assessment scores are low, where settlements are sustainable and where infrastructure can be delivered alongside new homes.

In total, this translates to six sites with a combined delivery of over 1,100 new homes in the planning system across Derbyshire on qualifying Grey Belt land. Sites that would otherwise have stalled for likely a 15-to-20-year period.

None of this means the path is straightforward. Planning remains complex, local politics matter and the window of opportunity created by the current policy context will not remain open indefinitely.

Local Plans are progressing and as they are adopted, the landscape will shift again.

There is also Local Government Reorganisation on the horizon.

On 1 April 2028 the existing 10 councils in Derby and Derbyshire will be replaced by two unitary authorities.

The broader picture, however, is an optimistic one. The direction of travel in planning policy is towards greater delivery. The housing need is real and widely acknowledged.

And the mechanisms now exist through Grey Belt, the presumption in favour and an ambitious new homes target – to translate that need into permissions and, ultimately, into homes.

The ground, quite literally, is shifting.